Dr. T.Y. Wang, University Professor and chair of the Department of Politics and Government, and his coauthor presented a paper at the 2022 American Political Science Association annual meeting analyzing the recent relationship between China and Taiwan. The paper is titled “China Threats and Taiwan Citizens’ Support for the 1992 Consensus.”
The Taiwan issue is arguably the most explosive issue in East Asia that could draw the U.S. into a direct military confrontation with China. As Beijing leaders have repeatedly demonstrated that they now have the ability and the will to accomplish their “China Dream” and national rejuvenation with military force if necessary, the urgency in identifying a solution to cross-Strait conflicts acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait is a pressing issue. So far, the 1992 Consensus is the only policy tool that can play such a role. China has launched a relentless coercive campaign on the Taipei government since 2016 by employing tactics of economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and military intimidation. The recent war in Ukraine further sensitizes Taiwan’s public sense of threat as both countries are menaced by their powerful neighbors. Because Taiwan is a democracy, the public’s approval of such an important policy as the 1992 Consensus is crucial to its success.
Employing the theory of threat and two waves of panel data, Wang and his coauthor find that China’s military intimidation does have an effect of coercing the island citizens to be more receptive to the consensus even though Beijing’s repressive measures in Hong Kong also make Taiwan citizens more reluctant to back the presumed agreement. This shows that Taiwan citizens are risk-averse. Concerned citizens are unwilling to accept Beijing’s unification plan, but they also want to avoid cross-Strait military conflicts. Taipei leaders will need to reconcile the conflicting objectives demanded by Taiwan citizens. The findings have important implications for governments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
