Dr. T.Y. Wang, University Professor and chair of the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University, presented a co-authored paper at the International Conference of Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study. The paper, “Strategic Clarity and Taiwan Citizens’ Confidence in U.S. Security Commitment,” examines the relationship between President Biden’s security pledge and Taiwan citizens’ confidence in Washington’s security commitment.
Biden’s remarks that his administration is willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan appear to be a significant deviation from Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Critics point out that such a clear pledge is likely to bolster Taiwan citizens’ overconfidence about America’s defense commitment. Because Taiwan is a democracy, the popularly elected Taipei government may take aggressive actions toward the island’s independence. Utilizing two waves of panel data collected on the island, this study aims to examine the above theoretical expectation. With a hybrid panel model, the findings show that Taiwan citizens’ confidence in Washington’s security commitment has actually decreased despite Biden’s verbal assurance. After witnessing the manner that the U.S. and its Western allies assisted Ukraine, many pro-independence citizens realize that expecting America’s direct military involvement in cross-Strait conflicts is unrealistic. As this awakening refutes their long-held faith in America’s security commitment, it has important implications to both governments in Washington and Taipei.
The conference was held by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University in Taipei, Taiwan, on November 5, 2022. Wang is on sabbatical leave in fall 2022 and spring 2023.
